Where does Chipper Jones rank all time?

Chipper Jones announced his retirement today, effective at the end of the 2012 season. So now would be a good time to assess his career and see how he ranks among the game's greatest third basemen.

Here's a listing of career WAR among the top third basemen (according to Baseball-Reference.com):

1. Mike Schmidt: 108.3
2. Eddie Mathews: 98.3
3. Wade Boggs: 89.0
4. George Brett: 85.0
5. Chipper Jones: 82.7
6. Brooks Robinson: 69.1
7. Ron Santo: 66.4
8. Scott Rolen: 66.2
9. Home Run Baker: 63.7
10. Graig Nettles: 61.6

A few notes:
- We'll leave Alex Rodriguez out of this for now. As of now, he's played more games as a shortstop than as a third baseman, so I'm not ready to include him here yet.

- Adrian Beltre is still about 14 WAR behind, but he'll probably shoot up the list to number 6 or 7 before his career ends.

If Jones matches his 2011 season this year (2.8 WAR), he'll move past Brett to claim the number four career spot, but at age 40, he'd have to play out of his mind to surpass Boggs. Not gonna happen.

OK, so fourth or fifth by career value. Now let's look at peak value. How many 7+/8+/9+ WAR seasons did Jones have compared to the top six guys:

1. Mike Schmidt: 9/3/2
2. Eddie Mathews: 8/4/0
3. Wade Boggs: 6/5/1
4. George Brett: 5/4/1
5. Chipper Jones: 3/0/0
6. Brooks Robinson: 3/1/0
7. Ron Santo: 4/2/1

Hmmm, it turns out that Jones only had three 7+ WAR seasons and zero 8+ WAR seasons. Even his MVP year only ranks as a 7.0 WAR. I think the problem is that Jones ranks as an average to below-average fielder, which brings down his overall totals. By offense alone, that 1999 season scores as 8.2 oWAR.

So is this enough information to rank Jones confidently? In my mind, yes. By both career and peak value as a player, Jones clearly ranks below the top three of Schmidt, Mathews, and Boggs. And I think Brett was a much bigger offensive force than Jones ever was, and he was a better fielder to boot.

Which puts Chipper Jones as the fifth greatest third baseman of all time. Not shabby, not shabby at all. Next up: Cooperstown.

If you want to read a couple of other assessments of Chipper Jones, check out Rob Neyer and Cliff Corcoran. (Spoiler alert: They basically come to the same conclusion.)

Great Teenage Hitters

UPDATE: Just hours after publishing this post, the Nationals optioned Harper to Triple-A. We'll see if he comes back up this season as predicted below.

If Bryce Harper makes the Nationals club this year, what can fans expect? If you go by history, not much. Very few 19-year-old position players have made much of an impact in the majors. Here are the best seasons by teenage hitters in baseball history:

19-Year-Olds
Mel Ott - 1928
.921 OPS, 3.5 WAR*

Edgar Renteria - 1996
.757 OPS, 3.0 WAR

Ken Griffey Jr. - 1989
.748 OPS, 2.8 WAR

Ty Cobb - 1906
.749 OPS, 2.6 WAR

Travis Jackson - 1923
.712 OPS, 2.3 WAR

The news gets a lot more encouraging when we expand our search to 20-year-old players. There are too many good seasons to list, but the top 5 by WAR are:

20-Year-Olds
Alex Rodriguez - 1996
1.045 OPS, 9.4 WAR

Al Kaline - 1955
.967 OPS, 9.0 WAR

Ty Cobb - 1907
.848 OPS, 8.4 WAR

Mel Ott - 1929
1.084 OPS, 8.0 WAR

Ted Williams - 1939
1.045 OPS, 6.8 WAR

So should the Nationals hold Harper back a year and wait till he's 20? Only if they have someone better on the roster. You'll see that Cobb and Ott appear on both lists, so the year of seasoning in the majors actually helped them get better. That's how it could play out for Harper too.

Of course, financial considerations play into the decision. They don't want to start the clock on his arbitration eligibility too soon, so what they're probably going to do is the same as what the Giants did with Buster Posey: Wait until late May or June so that this year won't count against his service time and they'll get the rest of this season plus two more pre-arbitration years.

*WAR = Wins Above Replacement provided by Baseball-Reference.com.

Great pitcher/centerfielder combos

This year, whenever Clayton Kershaw takes the mound and Matt Kemp mans center field, the Dodgers will boast one of the greatest pitcher/center field combos of all time. Last year, they combined for 17 Wins Above Replacement* — 10 for Kemp, 7 for Kershaw. That's not the highest total of all time, but it's not too far off. In fact, based on my research, it ranks as the sixth highest pitcher/CF total of all time. Here's the top 10:

1. 1912 Red Sox: Tris Speaker (11) / Joe Wood (9.6)
2. 1965 Giants: Willie Mays (11) / Juan Marichal (9.2)
3. 1956 Yankees: Mickey Mantle (12.9) / Whitey Ford (5.8)
4. 1937 Yankees: Joe DiMaggio (9.0) / Lefty Gomez (8.9)
5. 1997 Mariners: Ken Griffey Jr. (9.4) / Randy Johnson (7.7)
6. 2011 Dodgers: Matt Kemp (10) / Clayton Kershaw (7)
7. 1985 Cardinals: Willie McGee (8.5) / John Tudor (7.5)
8. 1964 Dodgers: Willie Davis (7.6) / Don Drysdale (8.2)
9. 1953 Phillies: Richie Ashburn (6.0) / Robin Roberts (9.6)
10. 1964 Dodgers: Willie Davis (7.6) / Sandy Koufax (7.8)

Just a few steps behind: Puckett/Viola 1988, Jones/Maddux 2000, Aaron/Spahn 1961, Wynn/Messersmith 1974, Jones/Glavine 1998, Snider/Newcombe 1956

Some notes:

- No surprise to see Speaker and Wood at number one. Those were two genuinely historic performances, but if you notice, they barely beat out Mays/Marichal, which were simply two great seasons of many for those two all-timers.

- It's great to see Willie Davis, a truly underrated Dodger, on this list. He had numerous good seasons and a couple of great seasons; 1964 was his best but not either Koufax's or Drysdale's best.

- Willie McGee is the big surprise on this list. He really only had one good season, but he won the MVP for it and went to the World Series. That's called great timing.

*I used Baseball-Reference WAR totals. Fangraphs only provides historical WAR for position players, not pitchers, so I couldn't compare the two totals.

Video trailer for "The Book of Baseball Literacy"

Hall of Fame voting

Congratulations to Barry Larkin on being elected to the Hall of Fame this week. When active, he wasn't the kind of player who screamed out as a Hall of Famer. But when you compare his numbers to other great shortstops in baseball history, it's clear he belongs among the greats. Next year's ballot is stuffed with legendary players — Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, et al — so it might be tough for other worthies like Raines and Bagwell to break through. But it should be interesting. More to come.

Coming soon to Cooperstown

Exciting news: The Book of Baseball Literacy: 3rd Edition has been selected for the bookstore at the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. When the bookstore opens up in April, the book will appear on the shelves alongside dozens of other great titles.

You can beat the crowd today by buying The Book of Baseball Literacy from Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or iBooks. The eBook is just $2.99 for a limited time, print edition just $14.95.

Print edition now available of The Book of Baseball Literacy

Great news: The print edition of The Book of Baseball Literacy: 3rd Edition is now available for purchase. At 384 pages, it's a huge book, but it's just $14.95 from Amazon.com.

Of course, the Kindle, iBooks, and Nook editions are still available at only $4.99.